How robotaxis are already transforming cities today
The Economist ran a fascinating piece on how self-driving cars are, right now, reshaping city economies and travel behavior.
This topic is almost personal for me: I rack up over a hundred thousand kilometers a year, and I want a decent autopilot more badly than my youngest kids want Santa Claus.
Imagine how travel will change: you switch on the robot for the boring straightaways and only take the wheel where the road turns into pure pleasure — panoramic mountain passes or my beloved off-road routes, which autopilot won't be handling any time soon.
Where driverless cars are already on the road, and what's changing
So what's actually happening with robotaxis today?
There are more of these cars in pilot cities than you'd think. In San Francisco they account for roughly ten percent of rides, and Los Angeles and Phoenix are catching up fast. Waymo, Google's outfit, is still losing money, but most of that is research spend. Once the technology goes mainstream, ride prices will drop more sharply than we can currently imagine. That's when things get really interesting.
Which jobs are disappearing because of driverless cars
The taxi driver profession is dying, and that's obvious and nearly inevitable. A robot doesn't need breaks, weekends, or vacation pay. But drivers won't be the only casualty. Mass adoption of autopilot means fewer accidents — that's already showing up in the statistics. Which in turn means less work for the insurers and lawyers who've lived off car crashes for decades.
What happens to parking and city infrastructure
Parking lots are doomed too. Why would you need one, when a driverless car can leave the city center on its own, or just circle the block while you sip your coffee? The huge swaths of urban land tied up in parking could be handed back to housing and business. Or parks, if we're lucky (unlikely).
How autopilot will change human behavior
People's habits will shift too. Office workers will move out to the suburbs more readily: you can just as easily work on your laptop from a self-driving car. Pedestrians will stop looking both ways before crossing the street. Why bother? The robot will stop. In San Francisco, "human" drivers are already cutting off autopilot cars more aggressively, since the algorithms always yield.
Cities will collect less in traffic fines, and the lawyers and insurers who specialize in that field will die out right alongside the taxi drivers.
Who will still be driving in ten years
It's entirely possible that in another decade, getting a driver's license will be harder than passing a pilot's exam. Only true enthusiasts will still get behind the wheel — and honestly, that's not a bad thing: the road will belong to just me and the robots.